Market Profile: Rate Cut Expectations Jump After CPI

Where Markets Meet Macro

Headline CPI came in slightly below expectations at 3.4% However, what really “matters” is that core went from 3.8% to 3.6% Softer consumer prices is cause markets to now price in four cuts this year, which won't happen, but we can ramp stock prices a little higher, right?

I wrote yesterday why I correctly forecasted core to come in lower than expectations here.

What is likely stressing markets is the giant goose egg on retail sales v. an estimated. 4% MoM gain. That's down from .7% last month.

Can we really be shocked? I've been highlighting the weakness in consumers for well over a year, and touched on it in the substack chat (check your chats!).

In today's market profile, we're going to go over trading ranges, gamma profiles, and what options are expecting.