The Macro Brief: Rate Sensitive Assets Tred Water, BTC Ripe For Pullback
TLT cannot catch a bid while GLD treads water. Can BTC continue to defy gravity?
This options feuled rally is taken a breather as more European data continues to show that the second largest economy is the world is struggling.
This is on the back of piss-poor ISM manufacturing PMI which came in at 46. This marks the eighth consecutive contraction. If no recession follows this would be the longest stretch since 1995.
US manufacturing prices fell to 41.8. This continues a string of constructions and a massive pull back from the 92.1 cycle high. Sounds pretty transitory.
Short-term equity volatility term structure is modestly - and I mean modestly - sloping as market participants see nothing to worry about.
If we look at my “pivot basket” of GLD, TLT and bitcoin against my rate sensitive proxy, we see two things:
TLT remains a tough buy
Bitcoin is floating into no-mans land
TLT is going to be the most vulnerable to the proxy outcomes. GLD is beginning to diverge to the upside, but with yields (especially real yields) elevated momentum is unlikely.
Bitcoin shot through $30,000 on the hopes and dreams of retail traders, and in the paid subscription section we'll go over near-term trading levels for the above as well as what's driving btc.